The bookies have Ben Mitchell priced as the underdog again today against Tsung-Hua Yang.
And I think he will win again. In fact on paper this looks like an even better bet than yesterday.
Yesterday Mitchell was solid on serve, displayed a strong serve volley game and gave Duckworth all sorts of problems holding his. He did choke in a pretty big way when it came to serving out the match at 5-2 in the third (2 or 3 double faults end on end) But he came back strong and confident to close it out in the next service game.
Tsung-Hua Yang has had a great run in Challengers, but almost always on Chinese soil, and is not nearing ATP level as Mitchell is imho.
Benjamin Mitchell $1.95 (-105) vs Tsung-Hua Yang at 5Dimes
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Yuichi Sugita $1.38 v John-Patrick Smith Burnie Challenger Today
Japanese Tennis is on the rise and the change in their ATP rankings this week reflects that.
And with Japan's first ever World Group Davis Cup against Croatia looming in a week or so, I believe the pride in country and desperation to impress the team coach will carry over again, particularly for Yuichi Sugita.
Sugita must have been kicking himself after giving away a commanding lead in his semi-final against Ginepri, missing the chance to meet his countryman Soeda, and main rival for a starting Davis Cup spot, in the final. And even more so when Soeda took out the Honolulu Title the next day.
The sting of that result, and this being his last chance to show the team selectors he is a winner deserving of consideration, will drive Sugita to take this one over the part time Australian.
Yuichi Sugita $1.38 (-260) vs John-Patrick Smith at 5Dimes
Also parlaying with Mitchell for odds of $3.12 (+212)
And with Japan's first ever World Group Davis Cup against Croatia looming in a week or so, I believe the pride in country and desperation to impress the team coach will carry over again, particularly for Yuichi Sugita.
Sugita must have been kicking himself after giving away a commanding lead in his semi-final against Ginepri, missing the chance to meet his countryman Soeda, and main rival for a starting Davis Cup spot, in the final. And even more so when Soeda took out the Honolulu Title the next day.
The sting of that result, and this being his last chance to show the team selectors he is a winner deserving of consideration, will drive Sugita to take this one over the part time Australian.
Yuichi Sugita $1.38 (-260) vs John-Patrick Smith at 5Dimes
Also parlaying with Mitchell for odds of $3.12 (+212)
Ben Mitchell $2.25 v James Duckworth in Burnie Challenger
Australian James Duckworth made headlines during January, particularly in his home country, for stepping up to ATP level to beat Mahut in Brisbane and then Zopp in Melbourne to make the 2nd Round of the Australian Open.
The Duck drops back to his more familiar Challenger Tour stomping ground this week but I think the bookies are putting a little too much import on those ATP level matches.
Duckworth likes clay, or a slow court generally, and his historic performances on the Burnie track are much less than stellar.
By contrast this is Mitchell's ideal surface and reports suggest he is fired up to remind Duckworth he is not the only young Aussie on the cusp of making the jump to ATP level. (having recently beaten Kukushkin and Mayer during qualifying for the Sydney ATP event)
Benjamin Mitchell $2.25 (+125) vs James Duckworth at 5Dimes
The Duck drops back to his more familiar Challenger Tour stomping ground this week but I think the bookies are putting a little too much import on those ATP level matches.
Duckworth likes clay, or a slow court generally, and his historic performances on the Burnie track are much less than stellar.
By contrast this is Mitchell's ideal surface and reports suggest he is fired up to remind Duckworth he is not the only young Aussie on the cusp of making the jump to ATP level. (having recently beaten Kukushkin and Mayer during qualifying for the Sydney ATP event)
Benjamin Mitchell $2.25 (+125) vs James Duckworth at 5Dimes
19yo Ben Mitchell Is A Strapping Lad
New Top 100 Rankings after Australian Open. Tomic, Nishikori on the rise.
Two of the three current hot young guns on the tour, Bernard Tomic and Kei Nishikori made a nice jump in their rankings this week to 34th and 20th in the world respectively. Whilst the third, Milos Raonic, lost in the third round to Leyton Hewitt, failing to match his R16 performance last year, so drops 3 spots to 28th.
It has been a big week for Japanese tennis. With Nishikori's quarter final appearance being the furthest a Japanese player has progressed in a Grand Slam event for over 50 years, and now being the first to make the top 20 in that long as well. Along with the rising crop of Japanese players dominating the Honolulu Challenger Tour event with 3 of the 4 semi final positions and tournament win for Soeda. Hopes must be very high in the land of the rising sun for their Davis Cup team playing next week.
Juan Martin Del Potro moves into the top 10 for the first time since he returned from injury at the expense of Nicolas Almagro.
Other noteable big movers are Ivo Karlovic moving up 11 places into the top 50 at 46th, Mikhail Kukushkin up 28 spots to 64th, Taipei's Yen-Hsun Lu up 14 places to 65th and Lukas Lacko moving into the top 100 with a 22 position rise to 97th, also passing 100th ranked Karol Beck to become Slovakia's top ranked male tennis player.
Rank, Name & Nationality Points Week Change
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 13,630 0
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 10,435 0
3 Federer, Roger (SUI) 8,010 0
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 6,900 0
5 Ferrer, David (ESP) 4,565 0
6 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 4,425 0
7 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,700 0
8 Fish, Mardy (USA) 2,965 0
9 Tipsarevic, Janko (SRB) 2,700 0
10 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 2,630 1
11 Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 2,380 -1
12 Simon, Gilles (FRA) 2,005 2
13 Monfils, Gael (FRA) 1,970 2
14 Soderling, Robin (SWE) 1,940 -2
15 Lopez, Feliciano (ESP) 1,890 4
16 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 1,855 2
17 Isner, John (USA) 1,800 0
18 Dolgopolov, Alexandr (UKR) 1,760 -5
19 Roddick, Andy (USA) 1,745 -3
20 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 1,680 6
21 Mayer, Florian (GER) 1,585 0
22 Troicki, Viktor (SRB) 1,550 1
23 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 1,485 -3
24 Verdasco, Fernando (ESP) 1,380 0
25 Chela, Juan Ignacio (ARG) 1,350 4
26 Granollers, Marcel (ESP) 1,350 2
27 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 1,345 -5
28 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 1,345 -3
29 Monaco, Juan (ARG) 1,300 -2
30 Anderson, Kevin (RSA) 1,270 2
31 Stepanek, Radek (CZE) 1,195 0
32 Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 1,190 -2
33 Kohlschreiber, Philipp (GER) 1,140 8
34 Tomic, Bernard (AUS) 1,138 4
35 Bogomolov Jr., Alex (RUS) 1,135 -1
36 Benneteau, Julien (FRA) 1,120 3
37 Bellucci, Thomaz (BRA) 1,060 0
38 Dodig, Ivan (CRO) 1,030 -2
39 Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 1,025 -4
40 Young, Donald (USA) 1,014 2
41 Melzer, Jurgen (AUT) 1,000 -8
42 Seppi, Andreas (ITA) 980 -2
43 Llodra, Michael (FRA) 960 3
44 Andujar, Pablo (ESP) 955 1
45 Baghdatis, Marcos (CYP) 940 -1
46 Karlovic, Ivo (CRO) 922 11
47 Ferrero, Juan Carlos (ESP) 920 1
48 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 915 -1
49 Tursunov, Dmitry (RUS) 913 -6
50 Nieminen, Jarkko (FIN) 908 -1
51 Rochus, Olivier (BEL) 899 3
52 Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 875 0
53 Montanes, Albert (ESP) 860 -3
54 Giraldo, Santiago (COL) 845 2
55 Berlocq, Carlos (ARG) 836 6
56 Petzschner, Philipp (GER) 815 7
57 Istomin, Denis (UZB) 802 3
58 Starace, Potito (ITA) 800 4
59 Blake, James (USA) 799 0
60 Muller, Gilles (LUX) 793 -5
61 Kubot, Lukasz (POL) 787 -3
62 Haase, Robin (NED) 781 -9
63 Falla, Alejandro (COL) 776 8
64 Kukushkin, Mikhail (KAZ) 768 28
65 Lu, Yen-Hsun (TPE) 741 14
66 Ramos, Albert (ESP) 724 1
67 Stakhovsky, Sergiy (UKR) 710 -2
68 Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 705 -17
69 Machado, Rui (POR) 698 1
70 Volandri, Filippo (ITA) 696 2
71 Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) 695 2
72 Stebe, Cedrik-Marcel (GER) 688 11
73 Sela, Dudi (ISR) 685 2
74 Malisse, Xavier (BEL) 680 -10
75 Cipolla, Flavio (ITA) 680 1
76 Sweeting, Ryan (USA) 676 -8
77 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo (ESP) 675 -11
78 Mahut, Nicolas (FRA) 673 3
79 Mayer, Leonardo (ARG) 659 1
80 Kunitsyn, Igor (RUS) 657 -6
81 Rosol, Lukas (CZE) 656 -12
82 Chardy, Jeremy (FRA) 652 0
83 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 641 -5
84 Darcis, Steve (BEL) 636 1
85 Ebden, Matthew (AUS) 635 9
86 Nalbandian, David (ARG) 630 1
87 Beck, Andreas (GER) 628 6
88 Soeda, Go (JPN) 625 11
89 Querrey, Sam (USA) 624 6
90 Devvarman, Somdev (IND) 614 -4
91 Kamke, Tobias (GER) 613 7
92 Riba, Pere (ESP) 612 -4
93 Bachinger, Matthias (GER) 602 -4
94 Paire, Benoit (FRA) 601 -10
95 Hanescu, Victor (ROU) 600 -5
96 Harrison, Ryan (USA) 596 -19
97 Lacko, Lukas (SVK) 596 22
98 Roger-Vasselin, Edouard (FRA) 592 3
99 Gil, Frederico (POR) 582 8
100 Beck, Karol (SVK) 576 0
It has been a big week for Japanese tennis. With Nishikori's quarter final appearance being the furthest a Japanese player has progressed in a Grand Slam event for over 50 years, and now being the first to make the top 20 in that long as well. Along with the rising crop of Japanese players dominating the Honolulu Challenger Tour event with 3 of the 4 semi final positions and tournament win for Soeda. Hopes must be very high in the land of the rising sun for their Davis Cup team playing next week.
Juan Martin Del Potro moves into the top 10 for the first time since he returned from injury at the expense of Nicolas Almagro.
Other noteable big movers are Ivo Karlovic moving up 11 places into the top 50 at 46th, Mikhail Kukushkin up 28 spots to 64th, Taipei's Yen-Hsun Lu up 14 places to 65th and Lukas Lacko moving into the top 100 with a 22 position rise to 97th, also passing 100th ranked Karol Beck to become Slovakia's top ranked male tennis player.
Rank, Name & Nationality Points Week Change
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 13,630 0
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 10,435 0
3 Federer, Roger (SUI) 8,010 0
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 6,900 0
5 Ferrer, David (ESP) 4,565 0
6 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 4,425 0
7 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,700 0
8 Fish, Mardy (USA) 2,965 0
9 Tipsarevic, Janko (SRB) 2,700 0
10 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 2,630 1
11 Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 2,380 -1
12 Simon, Gilles (FRA) 2,005 2
13 Monfils, Gael (FRA) 1,970 2
14 Soderling, Robin (SWE) 1,940 -2
15 Lopez, Feliciano (ESP) 1,890 4
16 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 1,855 2
17 Isner, John (USA) 1,800 0
18 Dolgopolov, Alexandr (UKR) 1,760 -5
19 Roddick, Andy (USA) 1,745 -3
20 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 1,680 6
21 Mayer, Florian (GER) 1,585 0
22 Troicki, Viktor (SRB) 1,550 1
23 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 1,485 -3
24 Verdasco, Fernando (ESP) 1,380 0
25 Chela, Juan Ignacio (ARG) 1,350 4
26 Granollers, Marcel (ESP) 1,350 2
27 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 1,345 -5
28 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 1,345 -3
29 Monaco, Juan (ARG) 1,300 -2
30 Anderson, Kevin (RSA) 1,270 2
31 Stepanek, Radek (CZE) 1,195 0
32 Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 1,190 -2
33 Kohlschreiber, Philipp (GER) 1,140 8
34 Tomic, Bernard (AUS) 1,138 4
35 Bogomolov Jr., Alex (RUS) 1,135 -1
36 Benneteau, Julien (FRA) 1,120 3
37 Bellucci, Thomaz (BRA) 1,060 0
38 Dodig, Ivan (CRO) 1,030 -2
39 Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 1,025 -4
40 Young, Donald (USA) 1,014 2
41 Melzer, Jurgen (AUT) 1,000 -8
42 Seppi, Andreas (ITA) 980 -2
43 Llodra, Michael (FRA) 960 3
44 Andujar, Pablo (ESP) 955 1
45 Baghdatis, Marcos (CYP) 940 -1
46 Karlovic, Ivo (CRO) 922 11
47 Ferrero, Juan Carlos (ESP) 920 1
48 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 915 -1
49 Tursunov, Dmitry (RUS) 913 -6
50 Nieminen, Jarkko (FIN) 908 -1
51 Rochus, Olivier (BEL) 899 3
52 Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 875 0
53 Montanes, Albert (ESP) 860 -3
54 Giraldo, Santiago (COL) 845 2
55 Berlocq, Carlos (ARG) 836 6
56 Petzschner, Philipp (GER) 815 7
57 Istomin, Denis (UZB) 802 3
58 Starace, Potito (ITA) 800 4
59 Blake, James (USA) 799 0
60 Muller, Gilles (LUX) 793 -5
61 Kubot, Lukasz (POL) 787 -3
62 Haase, Robin (NED) 781 -9
63 Falla, Alejandro (COL) 776 8
64 Kukushkin, Mikhail (KAZ) 768 28
65 Lu, Yen-Hsun (TPE) 741 14
66 Ramos, Albert (ESP) 724 1
67 Stakhovsky, Sergiy (UKR) 710 -2
68 Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 705 -17
69 Machado, Rui (POR) 698 1
70 Volandri, Filippo (ITA) 696 2
71 Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) 695 2
72 Stebe, Cedrik-Marcel (GER) 688 11
73 Sela, Dudi (ISR) 685 2
74 Malisse, Xavier (BEL) 680 -10
75 Cipolla, Flavio (ITA) 680 1
76 Sweeting, Ryan (USA) 676 -8
77 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo (ESP) 675 -11
78 Mahut, Nicolas (FRA) 673 3
79 Mayer, Leonardo (ARG) 659 1
80 Kunitsyn, Igor (RUS) 657 -6
81 Rosol, Lukas (CZE) 656 -12
82 Chardy, Jeremy (FRA) 652 0
83 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 641 -5
84 Darcis, Steve (BEL) 636 1
85 Ebden, Matthew (AUS) 635 9
86 Nalbandian, David (ARG) 630 1
87 Beck, Andreas (GER) 628 6
88 Soeda, Go (JPN) 625 11
89 Querrey, Sam (USA) 624 6
90 Devvarman, Somdev (IND) 614 -4
91 Kamke, Tobias (GER) 613 7
92 Riba, Pere (ESP) 612 -4
93 Bachinger, Matthias (GER) 602 -4
94 Paire, Benoit (FRA) 601 -10
95 Hanescu, Victor (ROU) 600 -5
96 Harrison, Ryan (USA) 596 -19
97 Lacko, Lukas (SVK) 596 22
98 Roger-Vasselin, Edouard (FRA) 592 3
99 Gil, Frederico (POR) 582 8
100 Beck, Karol (SVK) 576 0
Thursday, January 26, 2012
3 Picks for the Heilbronn Challenger
I think there are three good chances at good odds at the Heilbronn Challenger event for Thursday.
Martin Kliezen was dominant in his first round victory over the heavily favored Giles Muller and I think he will salute again today as the underdog against the hot and cold Mischa Zverev.
Canadian Frank Dancevic is great value at $2.35 (+135) against the older and declining Michael Berrer who took 3 sets to beat Gabashvili yesterday.
At nine years his junior and 220 ranking positions higher, Stebe should triumph against Benjamin Becker in the home town battle.
I'm taking;
Martin Kliezen $2.30 (+130) vs Mischa Zverev
Frank Dancevic $2.35 (+135) vs Michael Berrer
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe $1.83 (-120) vs Benjamin Becker
Martin Kliezen was dominant in his first round victory over the heavily favored Giles Muller and I think he will salute again today as the underdog against the hot and cold Mischa Zverev.
Canadian Frank Dancevic is great value at $2.35 (+135) against the older and declining Michael Berrer who took 3 sets to beat Gabashvili yesterday.
At nine years his junior and 220 ranking positions higher, Stebe should triumph against Benjamin Becker in the home town battle.
I'm taking;
Martin Kliezen $2.30 (+130) vs Mischa Zverev
Frank Dancevic $2.35 (+135) vs Michael Berrer
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe $1.83 (-120) vs Benjamin Becker
Martin Kliezen
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Tatsuma Ito and Yuichi Sugita in Honolulu Challenger Today
Tatsuma Ito comes up against American Kevin Kim. Ito was in good form in Australia where he went 5-2 and made the second round in Melbourne. Kim's two qualifying matches here are his first for this season. A well prepared Ito should be too much for Kim today.
Ito's countryman Yuichi Sugita has made a similar good start to 2012 with a strong showing in Chennai, beating Rochus and Lu before losing to Almagro in 3R. Indian up an comer Yuki Bhambri aslo did well in Chennai, winning against Beck before being losing in straights to Tipsarevic. Bhambri is still a solid Challenger series player but Sugita has stepped up to ATP level now and should make short work of this encounter.
I am parlaying the two Japanese today.
Tatsuma Ito $1.36 (-280) vs Kevin Kim
Yuichi Sugita $1.20 (-505) vs Yuki Bhambri
Parlay for $1.63 (-159)
Ito's countryman Yuichi Sugita has made a similar good start to 2012 with a strong showing in Chennai, beating Rochus and Lu before losing to Almagro in 3R. Indian up an comer Yuki Bhambri aslo did well in Chennai, winning against Beck before being losing in straights to Tipsarevic. Bhambri is still a solid Challenger series player but Sugita has stepped up to ATP level now and should make short work of this encounter.
I am parlaying the two Japanese today.
Tatsuma Ito $1.36 (-280) vs Kevin Kim
Yuichi Sugita $1.20 (-505) vs Yuki Bhambri
Parlay for $1.63 (-159)
Yuichi Sugita with East Asian Games Gold Medal
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Djokovic v Ferrer QF 2012 Australian Open
Ferrer has enjoyed the 'easiest' draw amongst the remaining mens players. And although being taken to 5 sets by Ryan Sweeting he was able to dominate in closing it out, as he did in straight sets against Machado, Chela and Gasquet.
Novak Djokovic only lost a total of 10 games in his first three matches before dropping a set to Leyton Hewitt in the round of 16.
Djokovic probably took the world 186 a little more lightly than he would normally treat a Grand Slam R16 match but there will be little chance of him coming into this quarter final anything less than 100% ready to win.
The Joker in straight sets.
N.Djokovic Wins 3-0 $1.78 (-128)
Novak Djokovic only lost a total of 10 games in his first three matches before dropping a set to Leyton Hewitt in the round of 16.
Djokovic probably took the world 186 a little more lightly than he would normally treat a Grand Slam R16 match but there will be little chance of him coming into this quarter final anything less than 100% ready to win.
The Joker in straight sets.
N.Djokovic Wins 3-0 $1.78 (-128)
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray v Kei Nishikori Aus Open QF 2012
The diminutive Japanese that never says die, Kei Nishikori, has already done the land of the rising sun proud by making it further in a Grand Slam than any countryman before him. But the Scottish top 4 Andy Murray has looked in winning form, and more importantly, state of mind, only losing 17 games total in the three matches since his shaky first round 4 set win over plucky American Ryan Harrison.
Andy Murray to win it in straight sets today.
A.Murray Wins 3-0 $1.68 (-148)
Andy Murray to win it in straight sets today.
A.Murray Wins 3-0 $1.68 (-148)
Kei Nishikori
2012 Australian Open Womens Quarter Finals
Petra Kvitova should dispatch Sara Errani in straight sets today, and go on to win the tournament, but the $1.11 (-895) price on offer is not worth the risk of injury, illness or just a bad day from Kvitova. The games line of 18½ should be enough to take the under, with Petra capable of taking at least one set to 1 or 2 games.
In the second match today giant killer Ekaterina Makarova, who saw off tournament favorite Serena Williams in the round of 16, is sent out at $4.00 (+300) against the screamer and fellow countrywoman, Maria Sharapova.
Sharapova was far from convincing in beating Lisicki in 3 sets late last night, whilst Makarova has had an extra days rest since upsetting Williams on Monday night (local time). On top of that Makarova thrives as the underdog.
Sara Errani/Petra Kvitova Games Won Under 18½ $1.77 (-130)
Ekaterina Makarova $4.10 ( +310) vs Maria Sharapova
In the second match today giant killer Ekaterina Makarova, who saw off tournament favorite Serena Williams in the round of 16, is sent out at $4.00 (+300) against the screamer and fellow countrywoman, Maria Sharapova.
Sharapova was far from convincing in beating Lisicki in 3 sets late last night, whilst Makarova has had an extra days rest since upsetting Williams on Monday night (local time). On top of that Makarova thrives as the underdog.
Sara Errani/Petra Kvitova Games Won Under 18½ $1.77 (-130)
Ekaterina Makarova $4.10 ( +310) vs Maria Sharapova
Nadal v Federer Australian Open Semi Final 2012
Nadal has the wood over Federer in terms of their head to head battle in Grand Slam events, with their 2011 meeting here in Australia probably still stinging Roger. But Federer has been in scintillating form and his body is holding up to boot.
Taking Federer @ $1.69 (-145) and total games played Over 39½ @ $1.85 (-118)
Taking Federer @ $1.69 (-145) and total games played Over 39½ @ $1.85 (-118)
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