Fabio Fognini +100 vs Michael Llodra at Monte Carlo

Although Llodra defeated Fognini here in the 1st round 2010, the vastly more experienced clay courter should gain revenge this year.

Fognini comes from playing in two clay events in the lead up to this, whilst Llodra will step on the dirt for the first time in 2012.

I expect this line to drop so would get in early.

Fabio Fognini* +100  vs Michael Llodra at 5 Dimes

Fabio Fognini

Flavio Cipolla -108* vs Benoit Paire

Flavio Cipolla -108* vs Benoit Paire 1 unit

Flavio Cipolla

L.Ouahab/S.Gutierrez-Ferrol Games Won Over 21½ -118

Two underdog first round winners come together at Casablanca today. With a combined ATP ranking of around 1300 Lamine Ouahab and Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol will both be eyeing off a quarter final berth hungrily.

Neither player dropped a service game yesterday and this could well go to tiebreakers and a third set so I see the Over 21.5 total games line as very attractive here.

L.Ouahab Games Won/S.Gutierrez-Ferrol Games Won Over 21½ -118*

Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol

Update

Adding J.Monaco Games Won -6½ -110 vs T.Ito Games Won  

 

Garcia-Lopez -108 over Mathieu in Casablanca

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -108* v Paul-Henri Mathieu 1 Unit

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Soeda and Bautista-Agut 2 Unit Specials Today

Japanese compatriots and Davis Cup team mates Go Soeda and Tatsuma Ito face off in the 1st round of the Houston ATP event today.

These guys know each others game almost as well as their own, and Soeda clearly has the wood on Ito with a 5-1 head 2 head record, winning each time in straight sets, and only failing to reach 6 just once in the 12 sets they have played.

Neither player is very experienced on clay, so the straight sets win Soeda enjoyed over Ginepri in the qualifiers should also give Soeda the edge with court knowledge.

I will be playing 2-3 units on this one when the odds come out at 5 Dimes.

Go Soeda

Spanish up n comer Roberto Bautista-Agut will be a nice priced underdog to Italian Potito Starace in the first round at Casablanca. An underdog I plan to jump on for 1.5 units.

Starace is a confidence player who has lacked it all year. Dropping back from ATP regular to Challenger tour duties, his record sat at just 2-8 for the last 10 matches before his home Challenger event last week where he made the final.

You might think that would be the confidence boost he needed, but the manner in which he was annihilated in the final just 2 days ago, 6-2 6-0, as the hot priced favorite will have a negative effect on this fragile fellow for sure.

Like Soeda, Bautista-Agut is both on a strong run of form and has enjoyed the benefit of 2 qualifying matches at the venue. Against Potito flying in late for the clash.

Roberto Bautista-Agut

Update

Go Soeda -200* vs Tatsuma Ito  risk 2 units

Roberto Bautista-Agut +115* vs Potito Starace risk 1.5 units

and parlaying both for +223 risk .5 unit

All bets at 5 Dimes.

I bet these matches this way as it leaves me with these possible results;

Both lose  -4 units
One wins -1 unit
Both win +3.75 units

I calculate this out as 10% chance of losing 4U + 60% chance of losing 1U / 30% chance of winning 3.75U = 1/1.125, or 12.5% better than what I see as true odds. (approx)

Also taking Lamine Ouahab +313* vs Robin Haase .25u