Zopp and Burquier in Tunis

1. 5/1/2012 5:30 AM Challenger Tennis 603 Jurgen Zopp* -140  vs Adrian Menendez-Maceiras
2. 5/1/2012 7:00 AM Challenger Tennis 611 Gregoire Burquier* -130  vs Matteo Viola

Parlayed for +203 1u

Tobias Kamke +285 vs Marcos Baghdatis in Munich ATP

Tobias Kamke* +285  vs Marcos Baghdatis .5u (Betfair)

O.Rochus +3½ -102 vs B.Tomic in Munich

O.Rochus Games Won* +3½ -102 vs B.Tomic Games Won 1u

In Estoril ATP and  Ostrava Challenger

1. 4/30/2012 8:55 AM ATP Tennis 302 Robin Haase* -255  vs Simone Bolelli
2. 4/30/2012 9:15 AM Challenger Tennis 704 Gerard Granollers-Pujols* -200  vs Franco Skugor

Parlayed for +109

Fabio Fognini +145 vs Andreas Seppi in Bucharest

Fabio Fognini* +145  vs Andreas Seppi .75u

also;

4/27/2012 3:30 AM Challenger Tennis 503 Yen-Hsun Lu* -170 vs Marco Chiudinelli
4/27/2012 6:00 AM Challenger Tennis 601 Adrian Mannarino* -150 vs Maxime Authom

parlayed for +165 1u

Milos Raonic +313 vs Andy Murray at Barcelona

Milos Raonic* +313  vs Andy Murray .5u

Raonic pulls out his best every time against the top players. And Murray is an unreliable head case.

Definitely worth a half unit speculator on this surface after his straight sets victory over clay court specialist Almagro yesterday.

Milos Raonic

Kei Nishikori -120 vs Albert Ramos at Barcelona

Kei Nishikori* -120  vs Albert Ramos 1.5u

Also parlay Nishikori with Lopez for +182 .5u

Fabio Fognini +100 vs Marcos Baghdatis in Bucharest

Fabio Fognini +100* vs Marcos Baghdatis 1u

Jimmy Wang +175 vs Go Soeda at Kaohsiung Challenger

Jimmy Wang +175* vs Go Soeda 1u

Danai Udomchoke vs Yen-Hsun Lu at Kaohsiung

Danai Udomchoke* +157  vs Yen-Hsun Lu .75u

Parlay for Kaohsiung Challenger

Kaohsiung Challenger

4/24/2012 0:00 AM Challenger Tennis 604 Go Soeda* -335 vs Konstantin Kravchuk
4/24/2012 1:15 AM Challenger Tennis 614 Yuichi Sugita* -300 vs Daniel King-Turner
4/24/2012 2:45 AM Challenger Tennis 618 Rik De Voest* -900 vs Hsin-Han Lee

Parlayed for -108 1u

Mello and Duckworth to win in Sao Paulo

 Sao Paulo Challenger 1st Round

Ricardo Mello -260* vs Gastao Elias 
James Duckworth -300* vs Joao Pedro Sorgi

Parlayed for -118 at 5 Dimes 

Parlay Of The Day +191

4/22/12 10:30am Challenger Tennis 302 Ivo Minar* -260  vs Ricardo Hocevar
4/22/2012 7:45 AM Qualifying Tennis 611 David Goffin* -230  vs Arnau Brugues-Davi
4/22/2012 8:00 AM Props Tennis 118 Not R.Nadal In 2 Sets* -215  vs R.Nadal Wins 2-0

Parlayed for +191 .5u

(times are US ET)

Roberto Bautista-Agut +120 v Rui Machado in Rome Final

Roberto Bautista-Agut* +120  vs Rui Machado 1 unit


Also like Minar to take the Santos final, Ivo Minar* -200  vs Ricardo Hocevar, but the juice is a little too heavy for me this time. Would be useful to throw in a parlay.

Gilles Simon +155 vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo ATP
Gilles Simon +155* vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga .5u

Rome Challenger

Roberto Bautista-Agut -105* vs Jesse Huta Galung 1u
Bautista-Agut -105* v Huta Galung/Junqueira -130* vs Alund parlay for +145 .5u

Giles Simon

Agustin Velotti -115* vs Diego Junqueira at Santos Challenger

19yo Augustin Veloti has been enjoying a break out year, already rising more than 100 ATP ranking spots to close in on the top 200.

In contrast, fellow Argentinian, 31yo Diego Junqueira has been comprehensively beaten in the first round of his previous 3 events, including retiring with reported muscle strain when down 6-1 3-0 to Phau at Houston last week.

Veloti disposed of Junquiera 6-3 6-3 as the dog 6 weeks in Santiago, and  I think that dog will bark again today.

Agustin Velotti -115* vs Diego Junqueira 1 unit

Agustin Velotti

Tomas Berdych -235* vs Marin Cilic/Fabio Fognini -150* vs Robin Haase Parlayed

Monte Carlo ATP Wednesday

 Fabio Fognini -150* vs Robin Haase
Tomas Berdych -235* vs Marin Cilic

Parlay for +138 

Horacio Zeballos +125 vs Sam Querrey at Sarasota Challenger

Horacio Zeballos +125* vs Sam Querrey 1 unit


Parlay G. Soeda/B. Phau +161 .5 units

Albert Ramos +120 vs Kei Nishikori in Monte Carlo

Ramos-Vinolas is fresh from the final in Casablanca, and whilst he is arriving late for this tourney, his strong recent form on the surface, and preference for clay courts, in contrast to Nishikori, should see him through to the second round here.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas

M.Raonic Games Won -4 -120 vs A.Montanes in Monte Carlo ATP

M.Raonic Games Won -4 -120* vs A.Montanes .75 units

Evgeny Donskoy -165 vs Rui Machado at Rome Challenger

Evgeny Donskoy -165* vs Rui Machado 1 unit

Fabio Fognini +100 vs Michael Llodra at Monte Carlo

Although Llodra defeated Fognini here in the 1st round 2010, the vastly more experienced clay courter should gain revenge this year.

Fognini comes from playing in two clay events in the lead up to this, whilst Llodra will step on the dirt for the first time in 2012.

I expect this line to drop so would get in early.

Fabio Fognini* +100  vs Michael Llodra at 5 Dimes

Fabio Fognini

Flavio Cipolla -108* vs Benoit Paire

Flavio Cipolla -108* vs Benoit Paire 1 unit

Flavio Cipolla

L.Ouahab/S.Gutierrez-Ferrol Games Won Over 21½ -118

Two underdog first round winners come together at Casablanca today. With a combined ATP ranking of around 1300 Lamine Ouahab and Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol will both be eyeing off a quarter final berth hungrily.

Neither player dropped a service game yesterday and this could well go to tiebreakers and a third set so I see the Over 21.5 total games line as very attractive here.

L.Ouahab Games Won/S.Gutierrez-Ferrol Games Won Over 21½ -118*

Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol

Update

Adding J.Monaco Games Won -6½ -110 vs T.Ito Games Won  

 

Garcia-Lopez -108 over Mathieu in Casablanca

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -108* v Paul-Henri Mathieu 1 Unit

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Soeda and Bautista-Agut 2 Unit Specials Today

Japanese compatriots and Davis Cup team mates Go Soeda and Tatsuma Ito face off in the 1st round of the Houston ATP event today.

These guys know each others game almost as well as their own, and Soeda clearly has the wood on Ito with a 5-1 head 2 head record, winning each time in straight sets, and only failing to reach 6 just once in the 12 sets they have played.

Neither player is very experienced on clay, so the straight sets win Soeda enjoyed over Ginepri in the qualifiers should also give Soeda the edge with court knowledge.

I will be playing 2-3 units on this one when the odds come out at 5 Dimes.

Go Soeda

Spanish up n comer Roberto Bautista-Agut will be a nice priced underdog to Italian Potito Starace in the first round at Casablanca. An underdog I plan to jump on for 1.5 units.

Starace is a confidence player who has lacked it all year. Dropping back from ATP regular to Challenger tour duties, his record sat at just 2-8 for the last 10 matches before his home Challenger event last week where he made the final.

You might think that would be the confidence boost he needed, but the manner in which he was annihilated in the final just 2 days ago, 6-2 6-0, as the hot priced favorite will have a negative effect on this fragile fellow for sure.

Like Soeda, Bautista-Agut is both on a strong run of form and has enjoyed the benefit of 2 qualifying matches at the venue. Against Potito flying in late for the clash.

Roberto Bautista-Agut

Update

Go Soeda -200* vs Tatsuma Ito  risk 2 units

Roberto Bautista-Agut +115* vs Potito Starace risk 1.5 units

and parlaying both for +223 risk .5 unit

All bets at 5 Dimes.

I bet these matches this way as it leaves me with these possible results;

Both lose  -4 units
One wins -1 unit
Both win +3.75 units

I calculate this out as 10% chance of losing 4U + 60% chance of losing 1U / 30% chance of winning 3.75U = 1/1.125, or 12.5% better than what I see as true odds. (approx)

Also taking Lamine Ouahab +313* vs Robin Haase .25u

Go Soeda* +145 vs Tommy Haas Houston Qualifying

Go Soeda* +145  vs Tommy Haas

Laurynas Grigelis +100 over Gianluca Naso in St.Brieuc, France

Laurynas Grigelis +100 ($2.00) vs Gianluca Naso

Laurynas Grigelis